| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Texas State | 27-52 | 1330.8 | -25.6 | 1305.2 | 14.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Long Island University | 23-28 | 1305.2 | -81.4 | 1223.8 | 85.9% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Kentucky | 23-48 | 1223.8 | +18.2 | 1242.0 | 3.9% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Louisiana | 34-31 | 1242.0 | +32.5 | 1274.5 | 22.6% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Central Michigan | 13-24 | 1274.5 | -18.9 | 1255.6 | 45.2% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Buffalo | 30-31 | 1255.6 | +22.7 | 1278.3 | 25.1% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Northern Illinois | 16-10 | 1278.3 | +24.9 | 1303.2 | 27.9% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Miami (OH) | 30-44 | 1303.2 | +3.3 | 1306.5 | 19.4% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Ohio | 21-28 | 1306.5 | +9.9 | 1316.4 | 14.9% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Bowling Green | 27-21 | 1321.3 | +9.9 | 1331.2 | 43.3% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Ball State | 24-9 | 1331.2 | +26.0 | 1357.2 | 59.2% |
| 15 | Nov 25 2025 | L | Western Michigan | 21-31 | 1352.2 | -7.0 | 1345.2 | 23.5% |